Trend paper test
A simple trend rule on the 30 most traded coins, traded on paper from $1,000 since 2026-10-01, next to buy-and-hold of the same coins and BTC. It held up in our backtest; this shows whether it holds up live. Every week is public.
$984.66trend rule: -1.53%, worst drop -1.53%
$984.66trend, skipping crowded longs (since 2026-10-02): -1.53%, worst drop -1.53%
$984.66buy and hold, same 30: -1.53%, worst drop -1.53%
$1006.52BTC: +0.65%, worst drop -0.12%
30/30coins held now (rest in cash), 1 week
This week
| Coin | 28-day change | Trend rule | Funding vs 90 days | Skipping crowded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTW | +206.43% | held | – | held |
| DRV | +162.97% | held | – | held |
| RAY | +130.22% | held | – | held |
| BR | +127.31% | held | – | held |
| AKE | +113.09% | held | – | held |
| MINA | +102.41% | held | – | held |
| NIGHT | +94.37% | held | – | held |
| VVV | +64.24% | held | – | held |
| AERO | +62.6% | held | – | held |
| ZEC | +51.63% | held | – | held |
| ZRO | +51.42% | held | – | held |
| STX | +48.22% | held | – | held |
| PYTH | +41.36% | held | – | held |
| ZAMA | +38.06% | held | – | held |
| TAO | +37.64% | held | – | held |
| XCN | +32.4% | held | – | held |
| GT | +31.41% | held | – | held |
| MON | +26.63% | held | – | held |
| PENDLE | +26.28% | held | – | held |
| BSV | +19.39% | held | – | held |
| SOL | +14.83% | held | – | held |
| DOGE | +9.01% | held | – | held |
| ETH | +8.32% | held | – | held |
| FLR | +7.77% | held | – | held |
| SYRUP | +7.18% | held | – | held |
| XMR | +5.61% | held | – | held |
| XRP | +3.68% | held | – | held |
| BTC | +3.42% | held | – | held |
| MORPHO | +1.88% | held | – | held |
| XPL | +0.93% | held | – | held |
Per week
| Rebalanced | Held | Trend rule | Skipping crowded | Buy and hold | BTC | Costs this week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | 30/30 | $998.80 | – | $998.80 | $998.80 | $1.20 |
Rules
- Every Monday at the first check after 00:30 UTC: the 30 most traded coins of our list (median daily traded value over 30 days on the exchange we price them on).
- Each coin gets 1/30 of the portfolio if its price is above its price 28 days ago; otherwise that part stays in cash. No leverage, no shorts.
- Costs: 0.12% of every amount bought or sold. Buy-and-hold (1/30 each, rebalanced weekly) and BTC pay the same costs.
- Values are marked daily on the latest daily close.
- Fourth line, "trend, skipping crowded longs" (added 1 Oct 2026): the same rule, but a coin is skipped while its Hyperliquid funding over the last 3 days is in the top 20% of its last 90 days. In the backtest this helped in every period but was not yet clearly better than skipping at random. Coins not on Hyperliquid are never skipped; when Hyperliquid can't be reached, nothing is skipped that week. It started as a copy of the trend portfolio.
- Why this rule: in a backtest over the last ~1,000 days (research, not a promise), it beat buy-and-hold and random in/out timing for every lookback we tried (7 to 56 days), mostly by sitting in cash through the big drops. Caveats: one market cycle, and the coin list is today's (coins that died are missing).
- Paper only, not trade advice.
Data: /trend-record.json · The other paper test: daily top 3 setups